Table of Contents

  • List of Figures

  • List of Tables

  • Preface

  • Test Your Judgment

  • Answers to Judgment Test

  • Part I: Why Do Good Managers Make Poor Project Decisions?

    1. Mental Errors in Project Management

      • The Power of Misplaced Perception
      • Why Do We Make Irrational Choices?
      • Mental Errors in Project Management
      • Mental Errors or Intention?
      • Why Is Recognizing and Dealing with Mental Errors so Difficult?
    2. Analysis vs. Mental Errors

      • Why Don’t People Perform Even a Simple Analysis?
      • Overconfidence
      • Confirmation Bias
      • Optimism Bias
      • Analysis Is Not Trivial
      • What Is the Value of the Analysis?
    3. Choice Engineering

      • The Processes vs. Mental Errors
      • What Is Choice Engineering?
      • Policing vs. Choice Engineering?
      • When Policing Is Necessary
      • A Few Ideas Behind Choice Engineering
  • Part II: Travel Inside a Project Manager’s Mind

    1. Memory and Project Mental Errors

      • Memory Errors in Project Management
      • What Is a Memory?
      • Reconstructive Memory
      • How Memories Are Created
      • How to Improve Your Ability to Memorize
      • Do Memory Exercises Actually Work?
      • Using Choice Engineering to Mitigate Memory Errors
    2. Emotions in Project Management

      • The Head-butt Felt Around the World
      • Our Emotional Choices often are Not the Best Ones
      • Emotional Intelligence
      • How to Become Emotionally Intelligent: A Choice Engineering Approach
    3. Behavioral Traps

      • Sunk Cost
      • Time Bombs
      • Prudence Traps
      • Collective Traps
    4. Heuristics and Biases

      • How Project Managers Became “Gamblers”
      • Availability Heuristic
      • Anchoring
      • Representativeness and Stereotypes
      • Some Other Heuristics and Biases
    5. What Makes Your Project Team Happy?

      • Why Are We Talking About Happiness in Project Management?
      • Why Did Eliot Spitzer Do It?
      • Why Some People are Happier than Others
      • Habituation
      • Why Time Seems to Pass More Quickly as We Age
      • Managing Exceptions
      • How Happy are You in Your Project Team?
  • Part III: Project Analysis vs. Mental Errors

    1. How to Process Project Information

      • My Dentist Has a Very Nice Website
      • All Marketers Are Liars
      • “Time Zone” Trick in Project Management?
      • “Peak-end” Rule in Project Management
      • Filtering Information for Your Project
      • I Did Not Read This Book, But I Know I Do Not Like It
      • Any Suggestions about What to Do?
    2. An Expected Value Manifesto

      • How to Win a Lottery
      • How Project Managers Ignore Expected Value
      • Incorrect Probability and Incorrect Expected Value
      • How to Choose a Scenario Based on Multiple Conflicting Objectives
    3. Project Risks and Mental Errors

      • Which Risk Is the Most Dangerous?
      • Are You Afraid of Falling Asteroids?
      • What is Risk Attitude?
      • Why People Have Different Attitudes towards Risk
      • Paradoxes with Estimation of Probabilities
      • Gambler’s Fallacy and Statistical Independence
      • Loss Aversion in Project Management
      • Risks vs. Opportunities
  • Part IV: Choice Engineering

    1. The Power of Adaptation

      • Processes Are Always Changing
      • What Is Adaptive Management?
      • How Adaptive Management Works
      • Barriers to the Acceptance of Adaptive Management
      • Tendency to be Consistent
      • Status Quo Bias
    2. What to Do About Risks

      • Make It Simple
      • Strategies for Dealing with Risks
      • How to Build a Rocket, or Risk Ranking
      • Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?
      • Zero-risk Bias
      • Risk Engineering
      • When Quantitative Risk Analysis is Necessary
    3. Choice Engineering for Organizations

      • Are You Borg?
      • Don’t Be Evil!
      • Disclosure Therapy
      • What to Do to Make Your Team, Your Clients, and Your Boss Happy
      • What to Do to Make Yourself Happy and Spread the Virus of Happiness
  • Conclusions

  • Appendix A: 14 Defenses against Project Illusions

  • Appendix B: Heuristics, Biases, Traps, and Other Psychological Effects in Project Management

  • Appendix C: Risk and Decision Analysis Software

  • Appendix D: Professional Associations, Societies, and Groups in the Area of Risk and Decision Analysis

  • Appendix E: Decision and Risk Analysis Journals

  • References

  • Index