**Preface**

**Introduction**

- Test Your Judgment: Why Do You Need Project Risk Analysis
- Answers to Judgment Quiz

**Part I. Project Risk Management and Qualitative Project Risk Analysis**

__Chapter 1. What is Project Risk Management and Risk Analysis?__

- Entebbe Raid 1976
- Shabwa Raid 2014
- A Quantitative Project Risk Analysis Perspective
- Project Risk Management Perspective
- Risks and Their Attributes

__Chapter 2. Risk Identification, Monitoring, and Control__

- Tzar Bomba
- Risk Identification Techniques
- Group Integration Techniques for Risk Identification
- Diagramming Tools for Risk IdentificationJudgment
- Elicitation Techniques
- Risk Reviews, History, and Audit

__Chapter 3. Risk Registers and Risk Prioritization__

- WhyWe Should Prioritize Risks
- Risk Score
- Risk Impact Types
- Hierarchical Risk Registers
- Risk Matrixes
- Risk Matrix Phenomenon
- Setting-up a Risk Matrix
- How to Define Risks in the Risk Register
- Ranking Risks Which Belong to Difference Categories

__Chapter 4. Risk Mitigation and Response Planning__

- Why Perform Response and Mitigation Planning?
- The Psychology of Risk Mitigation
- Risk Management Strategies
- Risk Mitigation vs. Risk Response Planning
- Registry of Risk Mitigation Plans
- Risk Mitigation in Stages: Waterfall Charts
- Cost of Risk and Its Mitigation
- Using the Risk Matrix for Risk Mitigation Planning

**Part II. Quantitative Project Risk Analysis**

__Chapter 5. Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis__

- Why Quantitative Risk Analysis?
- A Little Bit of History
- Statistical Distributions
- Discrete and Continuous Statistical Distributions
- Statistical Parameters
- Percentiles
- Probabilistic Parameters of Project Schedules
- How Monte CarloWorks
- Schedule Quality Requirements for Monte Carlo
- Distributions for Project Risk Analysis
- Three Point Estimates and Uncertainty Bands
- Seed and Linear Congruence
- How Many Iterations are Required
- Convergence Monitoring

__Chapter 6. Project Risk Analysis with Events: An Introduction to Event Chain Methodology__

- Project Risk Analysis with Events
- WhyYou Should Use Events as Part of Risk Analysis
- Project Risk Analysis with Events: A Psychological

Perspective - Basic Steps of Project Risk Analysis with Events
- Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology
- State of Activity, Moment of Event, and Excitation States
- Local and Global RisksRisk Alternatives
- How are Risk Chains Calculated?
- Probabilistic Risk Impact

__Chapter 7. Event Chain Diagrams__

- Why Event Chain Diagrams?
- Diagrams in Business Processes
- Visual Tools for Probabilistic Business Problems
- Event Chain Diagram Specification
- How to Use Event Chain Diagrams
- State Tables

__Chapter 8. Event Chain Methodology: Managing Event Chains__

- Why Event Chains?
- Event Chain Methodology Principle 2: Event Chain
- Types of Event Chains
- How are Event Chains Calculated?
- Event Executing Other Activities and Event Driven Branching
- Repeated Activities
- Execution of Response Plans
- Delays in Event Chains
- Entanglement
- Resource Leveling Using Event Chains
- Parallel Risks
- How to Define Event Chains

__Chapter 9. Interpreting Results of Quantitative Analysis__

- Interpretation Results of the Analysis
- Managing Project Contingencies
- Sensitivity Analysis, Tornado, and Scatter Plots
- Critical Indexes
- Risk Prioritization in Quantitative Analysis
- Calculated Risk Probability
- Calculated Impact and Probabilities of Event Chain

__Chapter 10. Project Performance Measurement with Risks and Uncertainties__

- Tracking Project Performance under Uncertainties
- Remaining Project Duration and Cost
- Forecasting Project Duration and Cost with Risk Events
- Monitoring the Chance that a Project Meets a Deadline
- Risk Analysis and Earned Value Management

**Part III. Advanced Quantitative Project Risk Analysis**

__Chapter 11. More Uncertainties: Calendars, Success Rates, Work and Resources__

- Deadlines and Success Rate
- More Details about Task and Project Deadline
- Calculation and Presentation of Success Rates
- Probabilistic Calendars
- ProbabilisticWork and Resource Allocation
- Probabilistic Resource Leveling
- Drawbacks of Risk-Based Resource Leveling

__Chapter 12. Scenario Analysis, Branching, and Decision Trees__

- Multiple Objectives and Multiple Scenarios
- Project Objectives and Indicators
- Project Scenario Analysis
- Decision Tree Analysis
- Probabilistic and Conditional Branching

__Chapter 13. Probabilistic Cost and Cash Flow Analysis__

- Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
- Cost Uncertainties
- Results of Cost Analysis: Cumulative Cost Chart
- Income and Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis
- Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis
- Cost and Schedule of Partially Completed Project

__Chapter 14. Non-Schedule Related Risks and Integrated Risk Analysis__

- What are Non-Schedule Related Risks?
- WhyWe Often Ignore Non-Schedule Risk Categories
- Non-Schedule Risk Impact Types for Project Task and Resources
- Quantitative Risk Analysis with Non-Schedule Risks
- Integrated Risk Analysis

**Part IV. Portfolio Risk Analysis**

__Chapter 15. Introduction to Portfolio Risk Analysis__

- Why Perform Portfolio Risk Analysis?
- Project Portfolio Hierarchy
- Prioritization of Projects
- Project Risk Score
- Enterprise Risk Register
- Risk Visibility and Risk Approval Rules
- Risk Bubble Chart

__Chapter 16. Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Portfolios__

- Challenges of Portfolio Risk Analysis
- Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Portfolio
- How to Simplify Project Schedules for Risk Analysis
- Why Do We Need to Improve the Performance of Monte Carlo

Simulations? - Parallel Monte Carlo Iterations

**Conclusions**

**Appendixes**

__Appendix A. Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology__

__Appendix B. What CanWe Get From Monte Carlo Simulation __

__Appendix C. Project Risk Analysis Software__

**References **

**Further Reading**

**Glossary**