• Test Your Judgment: Why Do You Need Project Risk Analysis
  • Answers to Judgment Quiz

Part I. Project Risk Management and Qualitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 1. What is Project Risk Management and Risk Analysis?

  • Entebbe Raid 1976
  • Shabwa Raid 2014
  • A Quantitative Project Risk Analysis Perspective
  • Project Risk Management Perspective
  • Risks and Their Attributes

Chapter 2. Risk Identification, Monitoring, and Control

  • Tzar Bomba
  • Risk Identification Techniques
  • Group Integration Techniques for Risk Identification
  • Diagramming Tools for Risk IdentificationJudgment
  • Elicitation Techniques
  • Risk Reviews, History, and Audit

Chapter 3. Risk Registers and Risk Prioritization

  • WhyWe Should Prioritize Risks
  • Risk Score
  • Risk Impact Types
  • Hierarchical Risk Registers
  • Risk Matrixes
  • Risk Matrix Phenomenon
  • Setting-up a Risk Matrix
  • How to Define Risks in the Risk Register
  • Ranking Risks Which Belong to Difference Categories

Chapter 4. Risk Mitigation and Response Planning

  • Why Perform Response and Mitigation Planning?
  • The Psychology of Risk Mitigation
  • Risk Management Strategies
  • Risk Mitigation vs. Risk Response Planning
  • Registry of Risk Mitigation Plans
  • Risk Mitigation in Stages: Waterfall Charts
  • Cost of Risk and Its Mitigation
  • Using the Risk Matrix for Risk Mitigation Planning

Part II. Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 5. Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis

  • Why Quantitative Risk Analysis?
  • A Little Bit of History
  • Statistical Distributions
  • Discrete and Continuous Statistical Distributions
  • Statistical Parameters
  • Percentiles
  • Probabilistic Parameters of Project Schedules
  • How Monte CarloWorks
  • Schedule Quality Requirements for Monte Carlo
  • Distributions for Project Risk Analysis
  • Three Point Estimates and Uncertainty Bands
  • Seed and Linear Congruence
  • How Many Iterations are Required
  • Convergence Monitoring

Chapter 6. Project Risk Analysis with Events: An Introduction to Event Chain Methodology

  • Project Risk Analysis with Events
  • WhyYou Should Use Events as Part of Risk Analysis
  • Project Risk Analysis with Events: A Psychological
  • Basic Steps of Project Risk Analysis with Events
  • Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology
  • State of Activity, Moment of Event, and Excitation States
  • Local and Global RisksRisk Alternatives
  • How are Risk Chains Calculated?
  • Probabilistic Risk Impact

Chapter 7. Event Chain Diagrams

  • Why Event Chain Diagrams?
  • Diagrams in Business Processes
  • Visual Tools for Probabilistic Business Problems
  • Event Chain Diagram Specification
  • How to Use Event Chain Diagrams
  • State Tables

Chapter 8. Event Chain Methodology: Managing Event Chains

  • Why Event Chains?
  • Event Chain Methodology Principle 2: Event Chain
  • Types of Event Chains
  • How are Event Chains Calculated?
  • Event Executing Other Activities and Event Driven Branching
  • Repeated Activities
  • Execution of Response Plans
  • Delays in Event Chains
  • Entanglement
  • Resource Leveling Using Event Chains
  • Parallel Risks
  • How to Define Event Chains

Chapter 9. Interpreting Results of Quantitative Analysis

  • Interpretation Results of the Analysis
  • Managing Project Contingencies
  • Sensitivity Analysis, Tornado, and Scatter Plots
  • Critical Indexes
  • Risk Prioritization in Quantitative Analysis
  • Calculated Risk Probability
  • Calculated Impact and Probabilities of Event Chain

Chapter 10. Project Performance Measurement with Risks and Uncertainties

  • Tracking Project Performance under Uncertainties
  • Remaining Project Duration and Cost
  • Forecasting Project Duration and Cost with Risk Events
  • Monitoring the Chance that a Project Meets a Deadline
  • Risk Analysis and Earned Value Management

Part III. Advanced Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 11. More Uncertainties: Calendars, Success Rates, Work and Resources

  • Deadlines and Success Rate
  • More Details about Task and Project Deadline
  • Calculation and Presentation of Success Rates
  • Probabilistic Calendars
  • ProbabilisticWork and Resource Allocation
  • Probabilistic Resource Leveling
  • Drawbacks of Risk-Based Resource Leveling

Chapter 12. Scenario Analysis, Branching, and Decision Trees

  • Multiple Objectives and Multiple Scenarios
  • Project Objectives and Indicators
  • Project Scenario Analysis
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Probabilistic and Conditional Branching

Chapter 13. Probabilistic Cost and Cash Flow Analysis

  • Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
  • Cost Uncertainties
  • Results of Cost Analysis: Cumulative Cost Chart
  • Income and Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis
  • Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis
  • Cost and Schedule of Partially Completed Project

Chapter 14. Non-Schedule Related Risks and Integrated Risk Analysis

  • What are Non-Schedule Related Risks?
  • WhyWe Often Ignore Non-Schedule Risk Categories
  • Non-Schedule Risk Impact Types for Project Task and Resources
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis with Non-Schedule Risks
  • Integrated Risk Analysis

Part IV. Portfolio Risk Analysis

Chapter 15. Introduction to Portfolio Risk Analysis

  • Why Perform Portfolio Risk Analysis?
  • Project Portfolio Hierarchy
  • Prioritization of Projects
  • Project Risk Score
  • Enterprise Risk Register
  • Risk Visibility and Risk Approval Rules
  • Risk Bubble Chart

Chapter 16. Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Portfolios

  • Challenges of Portfolio Risk Analysis
  • Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Portfolio
  • How to Simplify Project Schedules for Risk Analysis
  • Why Do We Need to Improve the Performance of Monte Carlo
  • Parallel Monte Carlo Iterations



Appendix A. Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology

Appendix B. What CanWe Get From Monte Carlo Simulation 

Appendix C. Project Risk Analysis Software


Further Reading