White Papers: Project Decision and Risk Analysis and Project Risk Management

Event Chain Methodology In Details

This paper is a detailed description of event chain methodology: schedule network analysis and an uncertainty modeling technique for project management. Event chain methodology focuses on identifying and managing the events and event chains that affect projects. Event chain methodology improves the accuracy of project planning simplifying the modeling and analysis of uncertainties in the project schedules. As a result, it helps to mitigate the negative impact of cognitive and motivational biases related
to project planning.

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Making Right Decisions in IT Project Management

Formalized decision analysis process helps IT project manager to make a right decision. The article describes how to use decision analysis techniques to mitigate negative impact to psychological biases and select most effective project decision. The article also give practical recommendations, how decision analysis process can be integrated to the IT project management process.

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Quantitative Risk Analysis with Microsoft Project

Quantitative Risk Analysis has become an important component of project management. Microsoft Project and particularly Microsoft Project Server implement qualitative risk analysis methodology. But what about quantitative analysis? Quantitative Risk Analysis gives the project manager ability to see how project schedule will be affected if certain risks are occur. As a result, project managers are able to mitigate risk factors and manage their projects better. Although Microsoft Project does not perform quantitative risk analysis by itself it can done using third party tools or add-ins.

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Project Decision Analysis Process

The paper describes structured decision analysis process, which can be used in project management. The project is based on 3C principle: consistency, comprehensiveness, and continuity. The process involves four phases: decision framing, modeling the situation, quantitative analysis of the problem and actual performance tracking. Each phase includes a number of steps designed to improve quality of decisions. The focus of decision analysis is to mitigate negative effect of cognitive and motivational biases on project decisions.

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Estimations in Project Management

In essence, estimates are forecasts of the future, unfortunately, people are not very good at forecasting. While it is difficult to make forecasts of natural phenomena such as the weather; it is even harder to make forecasts of any processes that include people, their knowledge and behavior. Project management is one of these processes.

Estimation is a very important step in modeling and decision analysis. Without proper assessments of project duration, finish time, cost, resources, success rate and other parameters, it is almost impossible to select a proper alternative and ultimately make a good decision.

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