Preface

Test Your Judgment

Answers to Test Your Judgment Quiz

Part 1: Introduction to Project Decision Analysis

Chapter 1 Project Decision Analysis: What Is It?

•    The “Burden of Wrong Decisions”
•    Why do we make wrong decisions?
•    Decision Analysis as a Process
•    Normative and Descriptive Decision Theory
•    Driving Forces Behind Project Decision Analysis
•    A Little Bit of History
•    Decision Analysis Today

Chapter 2 “Gut Feel” vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to Psychology of Project Decision-Making

•   Human Judgment Is Always to Blame
•   Blink or Think?
•   Cognitive and Motivational Biases
•   Perception
•   Bounded Rationality
•   Heuristics and Biases
•   Behavioral Traps
•   Frames and Accounts
•   Training Project Decision-Making Skills

Chapter 3 Understanding Decision Analysis Process

•    Example of Decision Analysis Process
•    When Decision Makers Go Bad
•    Decision Analysis Manifesto
•    3C Principle of Project Management
•    Decision Analysis Process versus PMBOK® Guide’s Project Risk Management
•    Phases of Decision Analysis Process
•    Big and Small Decisions

Chapter 4 What is Rational Choice or a Brief Introduction to Decision Theory

• Decision Policy
• Which choice is rational?
• Expected Value
• The St. Petersburg Paradox
• Risk Taker versus Risk Avoider
• Expected Utility
• Expected Utility Theory
• Extensions of Expected Utility Theory
• How to Use Expected Utility Theory
• Target Oriented Interpretation of Utility
• Descriptive Models of Decision-Making

Chapter 5 Creativity in Project Management

• Creativity and Decision-Making
• Psychology of Creativity
• Creativity Blocks

Chapter 6 Group Judgment and Decisions

• Psychology of Group Decision-Making
• Aggregating Judgment
• Group Interaction Techniques
• Brainstorming
• Tools for facilitation discussions
• A Few Words About Game Theory

Chapter 7 Are You Allowed to Make a Decision? Or, About Decision Analysis and Organizational Culture 

• What is FES?
• Why FES is a problem
• How does FES Spread?
• A few common myths about FES
• The fundamental roots of FES
• Treating FES
• The Second Russian Revolution

Part 2: Decision Framing

Chapter 8 Identifying Problems and Assessing Situations

• Who Are the Players?
• Identifying problems and opportunities
• Assessing Business Situations
• Some Tools and Techniques

Chapter 9 Defining Project Objectives

• Different Objectives and Different Criteria for Decision Making
• Aligning Project Objectives
• Decision Analysis as an Art of Trade-Offs
• Project Objectives Hierarchy

Chapter 10 Generating Alternatives and Identifying Risks

• Identifying Risks and Uncertainties
• Generating alternatives
• Risk Breakdown Structures
• Risk Templates
• Risk Response Planning
• Risk Registers

Part 3: Modeling the Situation

Chapter 11 The Psychology and Politics of Estimating

•    How Do We Make Estimates?
•    How we think when we make estimates?
•    Impact of Politics on Estimation
•    Psychological Problems with Estimation and Rule of PI
•    Student Syndrome
•    Other Cognitive Biases in Estimating
•    Further Explanations of Problems with Estimation
•    Where Is The Problem: Psychology or Politics?
•    Many mental errors and one wrong estimate
•    Simple remedies

Chapter 12 Project Valuation Models

•    Model of the Project
•    Critical Path Method
•    Critical Chain Method
•    Event Chain Methodology
•    Modeling Using Influence Diagrams
•    The Agile Approach and Project Decision Analysis

Chapter 13 Estimating Probabilities

•    Approaches to Estimating Probabilities
•    Subjective Estimation of Probabilities
•    How We Subjectively Assess Probability and Risk
•    Methods of Eliciting Judgment in Project Management
•    What If Decision Is Very Sensitive to Probability
•    Qualitative Risk Analysis

Part 4: Quantitative Analysis

Chapter 14 What Is Most Important or Sensitivity Analysis and Correlations

•    What Are Correlations And Why Do We Need to Analyze Them?
•    Sources of Correlation in Projects
•    Psychology of Correlation and Causation
•    How to Improve Your Judgment
•    Sensitivity Analysis
•    Quantitative Analysis of Correlations
•    Crucial Tasks
•    Correlations between Tasks

Chapter 15 Decision Trees and the Value of New Information

•    What is Decision Tree?
•    Why project managers avoid decision trees (and why they shouldn’t)
•    Converting project schedules into decision trees
•    Value of Perfect Information
•    Value of Imperfect Information

Chapter 16 What Is Project Risk? or PERT and Monte Carlo

•    How much will it really cost?
•    PERT
•    Statistical Distributions
•    Monte Carlo Technique
•    Which Distribution Should Be Used?
•    How Many Trials Are Required
•    Analysis of Monte Carlo Results
•    Is Monte Carlo the Ultimate Solution?

Chapter 17 Series of Unfortunate Events or Event Chain Methodology

•    How Events Can Affect a Project
•    Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology
•    Event Chain Methodology Phenomena
•    How to Use Event Chain Methodology
•    Event Chain Methodology Example
•    Event Chain Methodology and Mitigation of Psychological Biases
•    WBS + RBS + Analysis = Event Chain Methodology

Chapter 18 The Art of Decision Analysis Reporting

•    How to Communicate Results of Decision Analysis
•    Motivational Biases and Reporting Decision Analysis Results
•    Put It into Perspective
•    Presentations Must Have Meaning
•    Expression of Uncertainty
•    The power of Fear

Chapter 19 Making a Choice with Multiple Objectives

•    What is Multi-Criteria Decision Making?
•    Psychology of Balancing Multiple Objectives
•    Two approaches to multi-criteria decision making
•    Ranking Criteria with the Scoring Model
•    Advanced Methods of Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Part 5: Implementation, Monitoring and Reviews

Chapter 20 Adaptive Project Management

•    Adaptive Management as a Part of Project Decision Analysis
•    Principles of Adaptive Management
•    PMBOK® Guide Approach to Project Executing, Monitoring and Controlling
•    Adaptive Management and Changing Requirements

Chapter 21 Did You Make the Right Choice or Reviewing Project Decisions

•    Why Do We Need Post-Project Reviews?
•    How Could We Not Foresee It?
•    “I knew It All Along”
•    Overestimating the Accuracy of Past Judgments
•    Peak-End Rule
•    Process of reviewing decisions
•    Corporate Knowledge Base

Conclusion: Does Decision Analysis Provide a Solution?

•    Common Misconceptions about Decision Analysis
•    Why Do We Believe that the Decision Analysis Process Is So Important

Appendixes

Appendix A. Risk and Decision Analysis Software

Appendix B. Heuristics and Biases in Project Management

Appendix C. Risk Templates

Appendix D. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methodologies

Glossary

Future Reading

References

Index