Preface

Introduction

  • Test Your Judgment: Why Do You Need Project Risk Analysis
  • Answers to Judgment Quiz

Part I. Project Risk Management and Qualitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 1. What is Project Risk Management and Risk Analysis?

  • Entebbe Raid 1976
  • Shabwa Raid 2014
  • A Quantitative Project Risk Analysis Perspective
  • Project Risk Management Perspective
  • Risks and Their Attributes

Chapter 2. Risk Identification, Monitoring, and Control

  • Tzar Bomba
  • Risk Identification Techniques
  • Group Integration Techniques for Risk Identification
  • Diagramming Tools for Risk IdentificationJudgment
  • Elicitation Techniques
  • Risk Reviews, History, and Audit

Chapter 3. Risk Registers and Risk Prioritization

  • WhyWe Should Prioritize Risks
  • Risk Score
  • Risk Impact Types
  • Hierarchical Risk Registers
  • Risk Matrixes
  • Risk Matrix Phenomenon
  • Setting-up a Risk Matrix
  • How to Define Risks in the Risk Register
  • Ranking Risks Which Belong to Difference Categories

Chapter 4. Risk Mitigation and Response Planning

  • Why Perform Response and Mitigation Planning?
  • The Psychology of Risk Mitigation
  • Risk Management Strategies
  • Risk Mitigation vs. Risk Response Planning
  • Registry of Risk Mitigation Plans
  • Risk Mitigation in Stages: Waterfall Charts
  • Cost of Risk and Its Mitigation
  • Using the Risk Matrix for Risk Mitigation Planning

Part II. Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 5. Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis

  • Why Quantitative Risk Analysis?
  • A Little Bit of History
  • Statistical Distributions
  • Discrete and Continuous Statistical Distributions
  • Statistical Parameters
  • Percentiles
  • Probabilistic Parameters of Project Schedules
  • How Monte CarloWorks
  • Schedule Quality Requirements for Monte Carlo
  • Distributions for Project Risk Analysis
  • Three Point Estimates and Uncertainty Bands
  • Seed and Linear Congruence
  • How Many Iterations are Required
  • Convergence Monitoring

Chapter 6. Project Risk Analysis with Events: An Introduction to Event Chain Methodology

  • Project Risk Analysis with Events
  • WhyYou Should Use Events as Part of Risk Analysis
  • Project Risk Analysis with Events: A Psychological
    Perspective
  • Basic Steps of Project Risk Analysis with Events
  • Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology
  • State of Activity, Moment of Event, and Excitation States
  • Local and Global RisksRisk Alternatives
  • How are Risk Chains Calculated?
  • Probabilistic Risk Impact

Chapter 7. Event Chain Diagrams

  • Why Event Chain Diagrams?
  • Diagrams in Business Processes
  • Visual Tools for Probabilistic Business Problems
  • Event Chain Diagram Specification
  • How to Use Event Chain Diagrams
  • State Tables

Chapter 8. Event Chain Methodology: Managing Event Chains

  • Why Event Chains?
  • Event Chain Methodology Principle 2: Event Chain
  • Types of Event Chains
  • How are Event Chains Calculated?
  • Event Executing Other Activities and Event Driven Branching
  • Repeated Activities
  • Execution of Response Plans
  • Delays in Event Chains
  • Entanglement
  • Resource Leveling Using Event Chains
  • Parallel Risks
  • How to Define Event Chains

Chapter 9. Interpreting Results of Quantitative Analysis

  • Interpretation Results of the Analysis
  • Managing Project Contingencies
  • Sensitivity Analysis, Tornado, and Scatter Plots
  • Critical Indexes
  • Risk Prioritization in Quantitative Analysis
  • Calculated Risk Probability
  • Calculated Impact and Probabilities of Event Chain

Chapter 10. Project Performance Measurement with Risks and Uncertainties

  • Tracking Project Performance under Uncertainties
  • Remaining Project Duration and Cost
  • Forecasting Project Duration and Cost with Risk Events
  • Monitoring the Chance that a Project Meets a Deadline
  • Risk Analysis and Earned Value Management

Part III. Advanced Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

Chapter 11. More Uncertainties: Calendars, Success Rates, Work and Resources

  • Deadlines and Success Rate
  • More Details about Task and Project Deadline
  • Calculation and Presentation of Success Rates
  • Probabilistic Calendars
  • ProbabilisticWork and Resource Allocation
  • Probabilistic Resource Leveling
  • Drawbacks of Risk-Based Resource Leveling

Chapter 12. Scenario Analysis, Branching, and Decision Trees

  • Multiple Objectives and Multiple Scenarios
  • Project Objectives and Indicators
  • Project Scenario Analysis
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Probabilistic and Conditional Branching

Chapter 13. Probabilistic Cost and Cash Flow Analysis

  • Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
  • Cost Uncertainties
  • Results of Cost Analysis: Cumulative Cost Chart
  • Income and Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis
  • Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level (JCL) Analysis
  • Cost and Schedule of Partially Completed Project

Chapter 14. Non-Schedule Related Risks and Integrated Risk Analysis

  • What are Non-Schedule Related Risks?
  • WhyWe Often Ignore Non-Schedule Risk Categories
  • Non-Schedule Risk Impact Types for Project Task and Resources
  • Quantitative Risk Analysis with Non-Schedule Risks
  • Integrated Risk Analysis

Part IV. Portfolio Risk Analysis

Chapter 15. Introduction to Portfolio Risk Analysis

  • Why Perform Portfolio Risk Analysis?
  • Project Portfolio Hierarchy
  • Prioritization of Projects
  • Project Risk Score
  • Enterprise Risk Register
  • Risk Visibility and Risk Approval Rules
  • Risk Bubble Chart

Chapter 16. Monte Carlo Simulations of Project Portfolios

  • Challenges of Portfolio Risk Analysis
  • Monte Carlo Simulation of Project Portfolio
  • How to Simplify Project Schedules for Risk Analysis
  • Why Do We Need to Improve the Performance of Monte Carlo
    Simulations?
  • Parallel Monte Carlo Iterations

Conclusions

Appendixes

Appendix A. Basic Principles of Event Chain Methodology

Appendix B. What CanWe Get From Monte Carlo Simulation 

Appendix C. Project Risk Analysis Software

References 

Further Reading

Glossary